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Text 232 100 million public bond plan

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.    ¡¶¡· 232 100 million public bond plan

    This number directly made Murong Han and Cai Gongshi's jaws drop.

    What is the concept of 100 million?

    Murong Han knows best. Because Yang Qiu likes to use the Western calendar, the southwest fiscal year is calculated according to the Western calendar. This habit was also brought to Nanjing by Zhang Wenjing.

    Based on the current fiscal revenue of the eight southwest provinces from January to March, Hubei and Sichuan are each expected to reach an unprecedented 40 million this year, and Hunan is expected to reach around 20 million.  Among them, the fastest growing ones are salt tax, industry, commerce and minerals. Among them, the salt tax of Sichuan alone was as high as 8 million in the first three months. Industry, commerce and minerals are also growing rapidly due to the popularity of Hubei, Daye, Chongqing Qijiang and Xiangtan.

    After Yang Qiu took charge of the Southwest, he ordered Shen Shukai and the National Guard to sort out the messy traditional industries such as tea, raw silk, porcelain and tung oil in the territory, and use the opportunity to

    The action suppressed a group of asset compradors who colluded with foreign businessmen at low prices, and used the method of government-guaranteed purchase and centralized bulk purchase contracts with foreign businessmen to protect farmers' interests. In addition, Europe's bulk purchase of these things has increased significantly this year, and God is particularly kind.  There is no major disaster, so the three provinces alone can reach about 100 million yuan.

    Although the finances of the three southwest provinces have just been merged at the beginning of the month, survey data in the first three months show that Yunnan and Guangxi also have potential, and each province is expected to earn about 6 million this year.  Guizhou is slightly worse, but the problem is that tobacco leaves and sugarcane seeds have been sown at the beginning of the year. Due to the large planting area for this promotion, tobacco leaves are a controlled commodity and are heavily taxed. Several cigarette factories are under construction, so Guizhou is very prosperous at the end of the year.  It is likely to usher in a big outbreak, and the Ministry of Finance predicts that it is very likely to reach the data of Yunnan and Guangxi provinces.

    As for Xikang, it is currently transitioning to animal husbandry and horse breeding, but these results are slow and there is basically no guarantee. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance predicts that the two provinces can earn up to 2 million, but it doesn¡¯t matter anymore. If the six provinces can meet expectations, then Southwest  The total fiscal revenue of the eight provinces this year can exceed 120 million yuan, and the new tax system and economic stimulus policies are beginning to show results.

    Although it can exceed 100 million, it is only the combined efforts of eight provinces. Moreover, in the annual budget, the eight provinces¡¯ expenditure this year on education, railways, state-owned factory construction and administrative expenses alone is as high as 140 million, so there will still be a large deficit.

    so!  When Xu Xiujun opened his mouth, he said a figure of one to two hundred million. It was so shocking that Cai Gongshi even quietly tugged on his clothes to remind him not to talk nonsense.

    Only Yang Qiu guessed something and asked: "Public debt?"

    "yes."

    Xu Xiujun¡¯s answer was no surprise, but the number was much higher than Yang Qiu expected.  After the Revolution of 1911, various provinces in the country issued a lot of public bonds indiscriminately, with the total amount exceeding 50 million. However, Southwest China has never issued any public bonds from the beginning. It is not that they don¡¯t know about public bonds, but that Southwest itself is not poor. In addition, due to the transactions with Germany and  Loans are not necessary for the time being. After all, taking so much money out of the market at once is very likely to cause the government-induced industrial and commercial investment boom to subside.

    So he is still hesitant about issuing public bonds to collect money from the market.

    But Xu Xiujun didn't think so, saying: "After returning from the UK, Xiujun studied the domestic economy in detail. The biggest drawback is the serious backlog of capital, which is what the people call dead money. This situation is particularly prominent in the north and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, because of the lack of  In industries and projects suitable for investment, landlords and gentry often choose to purchase land first after making money, otherwise they simply pile the money in the cellar to mold. When I was in Jiangsu, I saw many families with millions in assets but they were reluctant to take it out.  Among the landowners and gentry who invest, I calculate that the proportion of dead money is very high in China, and the total stock is about 1.0-1.5 billion taels of silver.

    This situation is caused firstly by the fact that the country has been in turmoil for more than ten years and they have kept money to defend themselves. Secondly, there is a lack of investment projects in the country, especially landowners who have guaranteed harvests due to droughts and floods are simply unwilling to invest in risky industrial and commercial industries.  Thirdly, various countries have issued excessive currency in China, especially Japan, which has issued tens of millions of yen through Zhengjin Bank to circulate in our country, and withdraw gold and silver through currency to earn huge price differences.

    So my idea is to use the southwest railway line as collateral to raise public bonds from the country, and use a high annual interest rate of 5 cents to speed up the withdrawal of this dead money. It is expected that this alone can withdraw about 50 million.  In addition, national government bonds will be issued and sold to the market. If Germany and Germany can be contacted, they can even be issued directly in Europe.  Of course the European market is relatively mature, and investors need a stable and safe market, so this needs to wait until you win at least one decisive battle to show them that you can definitely unify China.  "

    "The annual interest is five cents!" After Xu Xiujun finished speaking, Cai Gongshi immediately shook his head: "This interest rate is too high. Currently, the annual interest rate for loans from various countries to China is only about 7 cents. If the public debt exceeds 100 million, the annual interest payment alone will cost 5 cents.  One million is equal to Jiangxi's annual tax."

      Xu Xiujun sighed: "Brother Hu Chi is right. Normally, three points of annual interest is good, but now that the war is in chaos and there is no high interest, who is willing to take out the cash? According to me, the annual interest of five points is only five points at most.  It can only raise tens of millions, but if the annual interest rate is increased to 7 cents, it will be able to raise at least 100 million public bonds."

    Yang Qiu understood why Xu Xiujun said he had to make up his mind. If it were anyone else, he would definitely refuse to issue public bonds with such high interest rates, because if the current situation continues to be unstable or the future economic growth rate is lower than the rate of interest payment, the national finance will be burdened.  The huge burden on the world is very likely to lead to fiscal bankruptcy, triggering violent financial turmoil, and ultimately leading to the collapse of the entire monetary system, just like the complete demise of the Republic of China's legal currency in the parallel world.

    But he is not an ordinary person. In more than a year, the super war sweeping the world will be staged. Just by frantically exporting raw materials, he is sure to make at least hundreds of millions of dollars. If the industrial company can improve the quality and output, how many dollars will it deliver?  It is not impossible to produce such weapons and export them to Europe.

    In the parallel world, Japan was able to reverse its pre-war debt of 1.7 billion yen and become a capital-exporting country. This was because it made a huge arms fortune during World War I and took advantage of the contraction of Britain and France to exploit China at extremely low prices and continuously transferred raw materials.  Earn the difference by selling in Europe.  Then again, even the then Beiyang government created a miracle of 13% annual economic growth during the war, why couldn't I?  As long as reunification is completed and not so quick to declare which side to join, there is definitely hope of sharing some of the wealth of the war.

    But he still didn¡¯t make up his mind immediately. There was another important factor in this, and that was Japan¡¯s uncertainty!

    Japan is absolutely unwilling to see China unified. A unified and tough China means that Japan's raw material purchase prices will double. Therefore, as long as Cai E passes Xuzhou and advances to Shandong, Japan will be very capable of responding. And this  He thought of it before the Northern Expedition.

    At present, the possibility of a national war between China and Japan is very small. After all, Japan is still burdened with 1.7 billion in foreign debt, and there is also pressure from domestic foreign debt. However, after all, the economic aggregate is large and the foundation is sufficient, which cannot be matched by Japan.  If a full-scale war were declared at that time, Japan would not be able to guarantee victory except for its navy's superiority in the army, and there would even be the possibility of losing South Manchuria and North Korea.

    The Japanese political elites in the early Taisho period were not the paranoid people of Hideki Tojo's generation. The domestic Satsuma faction and the Nagasu clan, represented by the land and sea, still restricted each other, which brought uncertainty to the outbreak of a full-scale war. In addition,  Although countries such as Britain and France are restricted by Europe, they never want to see Japan expand too much at this time, especially the United States, which is not willing to see Japan expand. What's more, there is also Russia. Once Japan fully invades China, Nicholas II  The world's temperament will definitely mobilize European forces to take advantage of the situation in the Far East. This is something Britain and France would never want to see.

    The possibility of a large-scale war is unlikely, but regional conflicts are certainly unavoidable. Just how to deal with Qingdao, which triggered the war, is a headache. Germany will not withdraw voluntarily, and Japan will certainly not let go of this good thing with British support.  Opportunities, the invasion of Shandong and Northeast China is very likely to happen. If the war cannot be resolved quickly, it will inevitably put great pressure on the finances. Even if the war money is earned, it will be consumed by the war and unable to repay the public debt.

    Is this risk worth taking?

    On the one hand, there is an urgent need for construction funds, and on the other hand, factors such as the expansion of the scale of the war after the issuance of public bonds will continue to cause instability  No wonder Xu Xiujun said that determination is needed. He cannot see Europe, but he knows very well about China and the Far East.

    Yang Qiu Xiangxiang said: "Zihong, if I cancel the silver standard now and change it to an exchange systemwhat do you think?"

    Xu Xiujun was startled by these words. Although there was Interim President Li Yuanhong above and there was Congress below to restrain him, the whole country knew that the future of this country was in the hands of this young man, so he was thinking about whether he would  He took the risk, but he didn't expect to change the currency now. He waved his hand quickly: "No!"

    "Currency reform must be done, but it must not be done now! Silver is still the main currency in circulation in the country, and the popularization of banknotes has just begun. A hasty currency reform will only cause national concerns about the currency. Insufficient gold and silver reserves will cause  Run crisis!" Xu Xiujun was afraid that he would change the currency rashly, and continued: "The safest way now is to over-issue a small amount of banknotes, and then use this batch of banknotes to purchase silver and gold of the same price in the market for reserves, and then issue them after balancing.  , and continue this cycle, using paper money to gradually collect domestic gold and silver. As long as the paper money is in the hands of the people, they will use it. When the reserves are sufficient in three to five years, the best policy is to carry out currency reform."

    "I can't do it without forcing you. There are so many ways but I'm hiding them." Yang Qiu laughed, looked at the equipment that was being installed and said, "I happen to be going to Nanjing. Let's go back to Wen Jing to discuss it.  Let¡¯s see if we can issue¡­100 million first.¡±

    ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?Young Han couldn't hold his breath anymore and couldn't help but stick out his tongue when he heard this number.  When Cai Gongshi saw his naughty look, he chuckled and said, "Zihong, I think the distribution targets this time should be concentrated on domestic and overseas Chinese. It is best to use a registered system. There is no need to make all the money to foreigners."

    What he said did make sense. Once the war took a major turn, the five-cent interest rate would definitely attract many foreign banks, and they would rack their brains to use this public debt to plan the Southwest Railway. So Xu Xiujun nodded vigorously, and suddenly turned around and smiled: "Vice President, listen  Did you say that Madam¡¯s grandfather was a Chinese businessman studying in the United States?¡±

    Yang Qiu was stunned for a moment, then glared fiercely and cursed with a smile: "Well, Xu Xiujun, the plot is on me. You should really be allowed to go to the front line to supervise the grain management."

    "Ha ha"

    !#.

    ¡¶¡·

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