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Text Chapter 1083 Number Guessing Duel (Second Two)

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    "Mr. Jing?" Feng Bujue immediately understood the meaning of the title, "Ohit's Hua Lian (in Peking Opera, "Jing" is usually called Hua Lian, Zheng Jing, Fu Jing, and Wu Jing correspond to big Hua Lian, Er Hua Lian, and Wu Hua Lian.  /Îä¶þ»¨)?"

    "Don't be poor like me. ¡Ë," Mr. Jing was a little surprised that Brother Jue got the meaning of his title, but he had no intention of continuing to talk to him about this issue. "What do you call me? Crow's Mouth?"

    "Okay." Feng Bujue smiled openly, "Just call me 'Crow Mouth'."

    "Hmph" Mr. Jing snorted coldly, "Then, I'll start asking questions now, crow's mouth."

    As he spoke, he picked up the paper and pen in front of him.

    "Please." Feng Bujue was holding a cup of drink and resting one elbow on the table. (The height of the cart is about 1.25 meters. Adults with an average height can use their elbows to rest on the table as long as they lean forward.  Take a break), responded very easily.

    ¡­¡­¡­¡­

    According to the rules, the number guessing game is divided into two rounds. In the first round, the party that proposes the challenge calls for bets and guesses, while the party that accepts the challenge is responsible for setting the question.

    In each game, there are "two parts" that need to be called:

    In the first part, the guessing party "declares" and guesses the correct answer within "a few rounds". Then the question-producing party makes a bet according to the number of rounds given by the other party. The minimum bet must not be lower than the start of the duel.  At that time, the bet amount is 1% of the total amount of gold held; the bet amount after this call is fixed, and the guessing party cannot make further bets and must follow up.

    For example For example, the guesser declares that he can guess the answer "within five rounds."  Obviously, the probability of such a thing is almost zero; at this time, the question maker will definitely call the maximum bet he can call, and the challenger must also follow up (if the money is not as much as the other party, refer to what the organizer said  Rule two, bet everything. Continue the showdown).

    Then, when the duel is "completely over", the two sides will settle the fee based on the final number of rounds.

    Of course, the above situation is unlikely to occur

    Because the betting in "this part", that is, the "betting on the round" part, generally gives money to the guessing party.

    As long as the guessing party says an exaggerated number of "one hundred rounds" or even "one thousand rounds" when declaring, it is basically a guaranteed win.  That's why this part of the bet will be called by the question maker When faced with that kind of number, the question maker will definitely only call the lowest bet he can.

    ?That is to say.  After the outcome of this game, as long as the guessing party does not lose everything during the duel and loses the qualification, then at the time of settlement, it is basically safe to get back a small amount of money from the party that gave the question.

    This setting is mainly set up considering that the guessing party is obviously at a disadvantage in the duel.

    Next, let¡¯s look at the call notes for ¡°the second part¡±:

    This part is repeated during the duel that is, every round, the guessing party must make a bet.  Similarlythe amount of each call cannot be less than 1% of the upper limit of the holding amount; and the party asking the question has two options: first, follow the bet; second, surrender.

    ? Follow the bet.  Naturally, the game is allowed to continue; and "surrender" means that the person who asked the question admits defeat. After he pays the corresponding fine, the game is over.

    ? If the rule of "betting on the round" is to protect the guesser.  Then the rule of "surrender" is naturally to protect the person who asked the question.

    Let¡¯s give an example If there is no ¡°surrender¡± option, then all guessers can use a very simple tactic to ensure they win money, that is, start from the first round.  Bet only the minimum amount in each round, and then bet all your remaining money on the round when you are sure to guess correctly.

    With this tactic, as long as the answer can be guessed within fifty rounds, the guesser will be invincible; this does not include the amount of "round bets" before the start of each round.

    Therefore, there is the setting of "surrender".

    Of course, there are limits to "surrender", otherwise the question maker can take advantage of this to achieve a guaranteed win For example, if you suddenly surrender after ten to twenty rounds of the game, you can just say hello.  receive.

    In order to prevent this from happening, there is a "surrender fine".

    In this number-guessing duel, there are two formulas for calculating the surrender penalty.

    The first type is applicable to the situation of surrender within the first twenty rounds. The formula is: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel * (50 + the number of completed rounds)% + the opponent's bet amount in this round  10% + base penalty.

      The second type is the formula used from the 21st round: 10% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel* (50-number of completed rounds)% + 10% of the opponent's bet amount in this round  % + base penalty.

    The so-called "basic penalty" is divided according to the current number of rounds. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 1-10 is 5% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel. The basic penalty for surrendering within rounds 11-20 is  At the beginning of the duel, 10% of the amount held by the opponent will rise to 20% of the amount held by the opponent at the beginning of the duel in rounds 21-30 And starting from the 31st round, the basic penalty will directly return to zero.

    Let¡¯s take another example In a certain game, both sides held $100,000 at the beginning, and the guesser bet 1% in each round. After thirty rounds, a total of $30,000 was lost; then, in the third round  After eleven rounds, he was sure of winning. At this time, he bet all the remaining 70,000 US dollars.

    Seeing this, the person who asked the question chose to surrender At this time, the penalty that the person who asked the question needed to pay was 10% of the one hundred thousand US dollars multiplied by 20 (50-30)%, that is, 2,000 US dollars plus the opponent's current round.  10% of the bet amount, which is 7,000 US dollars plus a basic zero penalty, a total of 9,000 US dollars has to be handed over.

    Although it is said that nine thousand were spit out at one time, it is much better than seventy thousand.

    In short, when the questioner chooses to surrender, the game ends. Looking at the above example, the result is that the questioner wins 21,000 US dollars from the guesser.

    After completing this part of the settlement, the two parties will then proceed to the settlement of "bet on the number of rounds".  Assume that the guessing party previously declared "within one hundred rounds", and the question asking party bids the lowest $1,000, thenat this time the question asking party will give the guessing party another $1,000, and finally win by 20,000 US dollars.

    above.  It is the general plot of the question maker choosing the time to surrender through the behavior of "guessing the solution and raising the bet" under "normal circumstances".

    So under the same conditions, what would happen if the question maker chooses the "just give it up" tactic?

    I won¡¯t list the detailed calculation process here, let¡¯s just look at the results Let¡¯s deduce it based on the conditions that both parties have 100,000 US dollars, and the guesser bets 1,000 each time

    If the questioner surrenders in the first round (note that the extra percentage in the first round is 50+0, not 50+1), he loses 10100, and the second round is 10200, and increases with each subsequent round.  100 U.S. Dollars.  Until the tenth round.

    In other words, if the questioner surrenders in any of the first ten rounds, he will lose money.

    At the beginning of the eleventh round, due to the increase in the basic fine, the fine for surrender in this round jumped to 16,100, and an additional 100 was added for each round thereafter; in this way, by the eighteenth round, the question maker will have the "good news"  Just take it¡± chance, if you surrender in this round.  The fine is 16,800, and the amount earned in the previous seventeen rounds was 17,000. This makes a profit of 200, but don't forget that there is still money for "betting rounds".  If you include that.  You still lose so you have to wait for another round. By the 19th round, you will earn 18,000, with a fine of 16,900 + a betting round of 1,000.  At this time, I have earned 100

    So, in the first twenty rounds.  If you want to "win steadily", you have only two chances, that is to surrender in the 19th and 20th rounds. According to the formula, the former can earn 100, and the latter can earn 1,000

    Butit¡¯s rare for you to be a question maker for once, and you¡¯ll be done with it after earning a thousand?  Don¡¯t forget that this game is about ¡°first come first¡±, which doesn¡¯t mean you can qualify without losing money.

    So, let¡¯s take a look at the situation at the beginning of the twenty-first round

    At the beginning of this round, the formula has changed, but the basic penalty has also increased again.  The fine for surrendering in the twenty-first round is 100, and will be reduced by 100 for each round thereafter; obviously starting from this round, the surrender mechanism begins to tend to protect the questioner.  Because after twenty rounds, the guesser's chance of guessing the answer is getting higher and higher.

    In this way, if you include the 1,000 bet round, "Round 25" will be a watershed; the fine for this round is 22,700, plus the 1,000 bet round, it is 700, but the money won by the question maker  is 24,000; of course, this is only a profit of 300, so this is not the point

    The point is that starting from this round, every time the question maker suddenly surrenders, the winning amount will increase by 1,100 US dollars.

    After six rounds of this, in the thirty-first round, the "basic fine" returned to zero, and the person who asked the question suddenly got an extra 20,000 yuan.  In this round, if the guesser does not raise the bet, the fine for the guesser to surrender is only 2,100 US dollars, and he has already won 30,000 US dollars at this moment. Even if the money from the betting round is removed, the net profit is 26,900 US dollars.  ¡­

    To sum up, the key confrontation of this number guessing game is between the twenty-fifth and thirtieth rounds If the guesser cannot guess the correct answer before the thirty-fifth round, then the question maker  As long as you surrender immediately, you will definitely earn 2With 9% of the chips, even if you happen to guess it on the thirty-first round, you have only recovered about 10% of the loss.

    Of course, even though I have said a lot, they are all just theories.

    In an actual duel, various situations may arise

    Maybe someone can guess the answer within twenty-five rounds; maybe someone can raise the stakes to put pressure without guessing; maybe someone can guess the answer when they think they are right, or when they are watching thirty rounds.  I forced a raise when I was about to pass, but the opponent saw through and followed up

    On the gambling table, fraud, calculation, performance, discovery anything can happen.

    In the world of gambling, probability cannot learn to respect you, and the God of Luck does not exist.

    The luck gained by praying ten thousand times is not as good as the skill achieved by practicing ten thousand times.

    The weak will be defeated, embezzled, crushedand will not receive any sympathy.

    Win and survive is the only justice in this world.

    ¡­¡­¡­¡­

    A minute later, Mr. Jing had written six numbers on the paper in front of him.

    Then, he folded the piece of paper, carefully protected it with his palm, and handed it to the man in a suit and sunglasses next to the cart.

    The latter also took the paper very cautiously, turned around, and blocked Feng Bujue's sight with his broad back. Then he unfolded the paper and glanced at the numbers on the paper.

    Two seconds later, the man in a suit and sunglasses folded the piece of paper again and put it in his jacket pocket.

    He turned around, stood up straight on the table again, and then said to Mr. Jing: "Once the number is determined, it cannot be changed, so I need to confirm with you, are the six numbers just now okay?"

    "Okay." Mr. Jing replied firmly, "I'm sure."

    "Yes." The man in a suit and sunglasses nodded, "You have all read the rules, but I still want to emphasize a few points" He paused for half a second, then continued, "First of all, if you are caught cheating, you will be sentenced immediately.  Loss, and the entire amount belongs to the other party." As he spoke, he stretched out his hand to gesture to a small device on the table, "Secondly, the timer on the table is similar to the one used in chess games, recording the time between both sides.  Time; the guesser's total time is forty-five minutes. If the answer is not guessed within this time, no matter which round is currently in progress, the amount of money on both sides, and the amount of the 'bet round'  Even if the guesser is 'completely defeated', all the loser's holdings will also belong to the other party." He paused and then said, "In addition, the guesser's calling time, the question maker's calling time, and  The time for the question giver to give feedback to the guesser's answer is calculated separately. Calling and following must be completed within one minute, and the feedback time is only thirty seconds; those who violate the rules for the first time will be punished.  The penalty of 1% of the holding limit at the beginning will be removed, and the penalty for the second time will be 2%, and so on"

    The rules emphasized by the man in the suit are indeed very important.  Needless to say, the punishment for cheating The organizer has naturally considered the situation of "malicious delay" when designing the game.  Due to the high cost, ugly and unskilled means such as "delaying time" are rarely seen anymore.

    In this way, the rhythm of the game can be kept tight and create considerable pressure

    And the various behaviors of the "guests" under pressure are exactly what the organizers want to see.

    "Ah~ah~ I know, can we start?" Feng Bujue looked a little impatient after hearing what the man in the suit said.

    The man in the suit did not answer him, but looked at both sides expressionlessly, and raised his hand to the timer.

    After confirming the reactions of Brother Jue and Mr. Jing respectively, the man in the suit said: "Since both sides have no objections, then the duel begins!" (To be continued.)
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